Greenland 2022-23 SMB, melting and GRACE mass

[RoxTheGeologist]

Only time for the images today - i.e. no blurb

Isn't that blurb? Thank you for the blurb. I often read it.

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 4th August

Daily melt at 29% is lower but still a bit above average for the time of year

Daily SMB loss of 3.6 GT is a bit below the 2017-2022 average on this day of 4.1 GT, with accumulated SMB gain at 436 GT now 31 GT (8%) above the 2017-2022 average of 405GT.

GFS says a weak Greenland High persists for a few days and then forecasts a strong high over central and northern Greenland stretching as far as Norway and Novaya Zemla. Temperatures look like largely unchanged for a few days and then rising. Trouble is GFS seems to have a habit of forecasting big changes in days 7-10 that do not materialise. If the GFS forecast works out then precipitation should be relatively low, and melt stay close to average and increase from day 7.

[Steven]

Greenland monthly average melt area for July 2023 was second highest on record, behind 2012, according to NSIDC data.

https://alaskan.social/@AlaskaWx/110823556583822406

[gerontocrat]

Greenland monthly average melt area for July 2023 was second highest on record, behind 2012, according to NSIDC data.

https://alaskan.social/@AlaskaWx/110823556583822406

Sigh.

Incomplete data when one knows it is there buried in a file somewhere is a pain.

If only DMI would provide a spreadsheet from 1979 of daily melt and SMB as does NSIDC's Greenland Today for daily melt.

And if only NSIDC Greenland Today would provide a spreadsheet of daily SMB as they do for Melt. (In the the end SMB is the more important metric).

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 5th August

Daily melt at 29% for a 2nd day, a bit above average for the time of year

Daily SMB loss of 3.2 GT is a tiny bit below the 2017-2022 average on this day of 3.3 GT, as average daily SMB loss quickly declines as the Greenland summer fades away. Accumulated SMB gain at 433 GT is 31 GT (8%) above the 2017-2022 average of 402 GT.

GFS completely changes its forecast from yesterday. GFS now says the weak Greenland High instead of strenthening reduces to an even weaker high and strengthening again after 8 days or so. Temperatures now look like largely rising continuously over the forecast period despite the lateness of the season.

If the GFS forecast works out then precipitation should be in the far NW initially, then after 3 or 4 days switch to mid-East Greenland generated from a strong low centred over Iceland that includes rain on coastal areas. Daily Melt may increase to well above average over the forecast period.

Maybe the paragraphs on GFS forecasts are a waste of effort and should be dumped.

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 6th August

Daily melt down 1% to 28%, a bit above average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 2.5 GT is above the 2017-2022 average on this day of 2.0 GT, as average daily SMB loss quickly declines as the Greenland summer fades away. Accumulated SMB gain at 430 GT is 30 GT (8%) above the 2017-2022 average of 400 GT.

GFS now maintains the Greenland High, strengthening late in the forecast period. Temperatures now look like largely rising continuously over the forecast period despite the lateness of the season.

If the GFS forecast works out then precipitation should be mostly low, apart from on Thursday on mid-East Greenland generated from a low NW of Iceland that includes rain on coastal areas. Daily Melt may increase to well above average from late this week.

It looks like accumulated melt totals could be well above the 2017-2022 average by the end of the melting season, while accumulated SMB could be well above that average.

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 7th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB

Daily melt up 1% to 29%, a bit above average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 2.9 GT is well above the 2017-2022 average on this day of 0.9 GT, as average daily SMB loss quickly declines as the Greenland summer fades away. Accumulated SMB gain at 427 GT is 29 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 399 GT.

GFS now maintains the Greenland High, gradually strengthening late in the forecast period over Central /Nortehrn Greenland with low pressure in the South and West.

Temperatures now look like largely rising continuously over the forecast period despite the lateness of the season.

If the GFS forecast works out then precipitation should be variable, on Thursday on mid-East Greenland generated from a low NW of Iceland that includes rain on coastal areas followed by increased and warmer precipitation from the South and West including significant rain penetrating well inland. Daily Melt may increase to well above average from late this week.

It looks like accumulated melt totals could be well above the 2017-2022 average by the end of the melting season, while accumulated SMB could be well above that average.
[/quote]

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 8th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB

Daily melt unchanged at 29%, a bit above average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 2.2 GT is above the 2017-2022 average on this day of 1.9 GT, as average daily SMB loss declines as the Greenland summer fades away. Accumulated SMB gain at 425 GT is 28 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 397 GT.

GFS now maintains the Greenland High, gradually strengthening late in the forecast period over most of Greenland

Temperatures now look like largely rising over the next few days and then falling.

If the GFS forecast works out then precipitation should be variable, on Thursday on mid-East Greenland generated from a low NW of Iceland that includes rain on coastal areas followed by precipitation from the South and West including some rain pn snow then becoming dry late in the forecast period of 10 days. Daily Melt may increase to well above average late this week and over the weekend and then moderate..

It looks probable that accumulated melt totals will be well above the 2017-2022 average by the end of the melting season, while accumulated SMB could be well above that average.

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 9th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB

Daily melt unchanged at 29%, above average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 2.2 GT is above the 2017-2022 average on this day of 1.4 GT, as average daily SMB loss declines as the Greenland summer fades away. Accumulated SMB gain at 423 GT is 27 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 396 GT.

GFS now maintains the Greenland High, gradually strengthening late in the forecast period over most of Greenland & extending eastwards

Temperatures now look like largely rising over the next few days and then falling.

If the GFS forecast works out then precipitation should be variable over the whol;e forecast period. Daily Melt may increase to well above average late this week and over the weekend and then moderate..

It looks increasingly probable that accumulated melt totals will be well above the 2017-2022 average by the end of the melting season, while accumulated SMB could be above the 5 year average.

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 10th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB

Daily melt up 1% to 30%, well above average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 2.0 GT is just above the 2017-2022 average on this day of 1.9 GT, as average daily SMB loss declines as the Greenland summer fades away. Accumulated SMB gain at 421 GT is 27 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 394 GT.

GFS now maintains the Greenland High, weakening and then strongly strengthening late in the forecast period over most of Greenland & extending eastwards (but GFS has been forecasting this for some time - and always one day later in each forecast)

Temperatures now look like largely rising a bit over the next 3-4 days and then perhaps falling.

If the GFS forecast works out then precipitation should be variable but mostly low over the whole forecast period. Daily Melt may be well above average from today and over the weekend and then perhaps moderate to more average levels.

It looks increasingly probable that accumulated melt totals will be well above the 2017-2022 average by the end of the melting season. Will we get a September surprise as in 2022?

Accumulated SMB could well end up above the 5 year average despite the pssibility that accumulated melt this year will finish at 2nd highest in the satellite record; with 2012 maintaining the record melt and the lowest accumulated smb gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland

[gerontocrat]

Here is an analysis of NSIDC's GREENLAND TODAY data in sort of JAXA analysis format.
I wish I could do it on DMI data but I don't have the data. Definitely a boo-hoo moment.
Accumulated melt currently 4th highest since 1979

It really shows how 2012 was more than extraordinary

If /when you spot any errors please let me know


NSIDC GREENLAND TODAY ACCUMULATED MELT:  27,239,376 KM2 as at 10-Aug-2023

- Melt  on this day 0.20 million km2, 0.03 million km2 less than the average gain on this DAY(of the last 10 years) of 0.23 million km2,
- Cumulative Melt on this date is 27.24 million km2, which is 6.73 million km2, 32.8% more than the 10 year average of 20.51 million km2.

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

- Melt is  6.80 million km2 MORE than 2020,
- Melt is  0.60 million km2 MORE than  2019,
- Melt is  16.81 million km2 LESS than 2012
- Melt is  2.60 million km2 MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 86.5% of Melt losses from maximum to minimum done, and 82 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining Melt loss (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum melt of 32.04 million km2, 15.37 million km2 below the Sept 2012 record high maximum of 47.41 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 11th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB

Daily melt down 2% to 28%, still well above average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 1.6 GT is above the 2017-2022 average on this day of 1.2 GT, as average daily SMB loss declines as the Greenland summer fades away. Accumulated SMB gain at 419 GT is 26 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 393 GT.

From now on I have abandoned looking at GFS forecasts beyond days 4-6 GFS it is not reliable.  GFS maintains the Greenland High

Temperatures now look like largely rising a bit over the weekend and then falling.

If the GFS forecast works out then precipitation should be variable but mostly low over the whole forecast period. Daily Melt may be above average from over the weekend and then moderate to more average levels.

It looks increasingly probable that accumulated melt totals will be well above the 2017-2022 average by the end of the melting season. Will we get a September surprise as in 2022?

Accumulated SMB could well end up above the 5 year average despite the pssibility that accumulated melt this year will finish at 4th highest in the satellite record; with 2012 maintaining the record melt and the lowest accumulated smb gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 12th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB

Daily melt up 1% to 29%, well above average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 1.3 GT is below the 2017-2022 average on this day of 1.8 GT, against the trend of average daily SMB loss declining as the Greenland summer fades away. Accumulated SMB gain at 418 GT is 26 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 391 GT.

The GFS forecast is unsettled, with the Greenland High waning and waxing and temperatures and precipitation rising and falling. The only thing to do is to just wait and see what happens.

If the GFS forecast works out then precipitation should be very variable with very dry and very wet days. Daily Melt may also be highly variable.

It looks increasingly certain that accumulated melt totals will be well above the 2017-2022 average by the end of the melting season. Will we get a September surprise as in 2022?

Accumulated SMB could well end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 4th highest in the satellite record (NSIDC Greenland Today data); with 2012 maintaining the record melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland

[Phil.]

Here is an analysis of NSIDC's GREENLAND TODAY data in sort of JAXA analysis format.
I wish I could do it on DMI data but I don't have the data. Definitely a boo-hoo moment.
Accumulated melt currently 4th highest since 1979

It really shows how 2012 was more than extraordinary

If /when you spot any errors please let me know


NSIDC GREENLAND TODAY ACCUMULATED MELT:  27,239,376 KM2 as at 10-Aug-2023

I would say that the units for the Accumulated Melt should be km^2.days since it's the product of area melt and number of days.

[gerontocrat]

I would say that the units for the Accumulated Melt should be km^2.days since it's the product of area melt and number of days.

DMI supplies the melt data as a %, NSIDC Greenland Today im KM2. I have been known to convert Greenland Today data into % using NSIDC's GIS area of 1.71 million km2. I think DMI say the GIS area is 1.755 million km2.

The Greenland Today melt data is consistently much below that of the DMI data (though the trend looks the same), so no combination of the two datasets is reasonable.

So I am sticking with the different measures until there is a good reason to have both datasets on both Km2 and percents.

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 13th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB

Daily melt unchanged at 29%, well above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 2.6 GT is well above the 2017-2022 average on this day of 1.4 GT, with the longterm trend of average daily SMB loss declining as the Greenland summer fades away. Accumulated SMB gain at 416 GT is 26 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 390 GT.

The GFS forecast has the Greenland High waning and waxing, temperatures falling then rising and less daily precipitation. The only thing to do is to just wait and see what happens.

If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could be gradually getting less. Daily Melt may also be highly variable with an increasing trend.

Accumulated melt is already above the 2017-2022 average. Will we get a September surprise as in 2022?

Accumulated SMB could well end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 4th highest in the satellite record (NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland

[gerontocrat]

A 2nd go at NSIDC GREENLAND TODAY data in sort-of JAXA format with some errors found by Stephan hopefully removed.

NSIDC GREENLAND TODAY ACCUMULATED MELT:  28,028,751 KM2 as at 13-Aug-2023

- Melt  on this day 0.28 million km2, 0.15 million k m2 more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 0.14 million km2,
- Cumulative Melt on this date is 28.03 million km2, which is 7.03 million km2, 33.5% more than the 10 year average of 21.00 million km2.

- Melt is at position #3 in the satellite record

- Melt is  7.14 million km2 MORE than 2020,
- Melt is  0.99 million km2 MORE than  2019,
- Melt is  16.33 million km2 LESS than 2012
- Melt is  1.11 million km2 LESS than 2016
- Melt is  2.85 million km2 MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 88.6% of Melt done, and 79 days to maximum

Projections. (TableMaxProjection)

Average remaining Melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum cumulative melt of 31.55 million km2, 15.86 million km2 below the Sept 2012 record high maximum of 47.41 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

& For your Edification and Amusement NSIDC GREENLAND TODAY Maxima table and graph

It made me think a bit - another hiatus following the 2012 event?
EDIT:- or simply the linear trend distorted by the 2012 outlier?

click images to enlarge & click table again to make table readable

[gerontocrat]

& back to DMI data....

DMI data as at 14th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB

Daily melt up 2% at 31%, well above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 1.6 GT is well below the 2017-2022 average on this day of 2.3 GT which is against the longterm trend of average daily SMB loss declining as the Greenland summer fades away. Accumulated SMB gain at 414 GT is 27 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 387 GT.

The GFS forecast has the Greenland High waning and waxing with lows over NE Canada & the CAA, with temperatures gradually rising. If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could be gradually getting less unless rain from the lows to the West of Greenland pushes East into Greenland. Daily Melt may also be highly variable with an increasing trend.

Accumulated melt is already above the 2017-2022 average. Will we get a September surprise as in 2022?

Accumulated SMB could well end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or 4th highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland

[gerontocrat]

& back to DMI data....

DMI data as at 14th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB

Daily melt down 4% to 27%, still well above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 2.0 GT is above the 2017-2022 average on this day of 1.5 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 412 GT is 26 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 386 GT.

The GFS forecast has the Greenland High waning from day 4 with lows over NE Canada & the CAA, and temperatures rising. If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could increase from day 4 from the South with significant rain on snow. Daily Melt may also strongly increase from day 4.

Accumulated melt is already above the 2017-2022 average.

Accumulated SMB could well end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or 4th highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 16th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB

Daily melt down 4% to 23%, still above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 2.1 GT is below the 2017-2022 average on this day of 2.6 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 410 GT is 27 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 383 GT.

The GFS forecast has the Greenland High waning with lows over NE Canada & the CAA, and temperatures strongly rising from Sunday onwards. If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could increase from the South with at least one significant rain on snow event. Daily Melt may also strongly increase fromSunday - perhaps even a melt event.

Accumulated melt is already above the 2017-2022 average.

Accumulated SMB could well end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or 4th highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland

[grixm]

The GFS forecast has the Greenland High waning with lows over NE Canada & the CAA, and temperatures strongly rising from Sunday onwards. If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could increase from the South with at least one significant rain on snow event. Daily Melt may also strongly increase fromSunday - perhaps even a melt event.

Visualized. Forecast 5 days out 👀

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 17th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt up 1% to 24%, still above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 2.7 GT is below the 2017-2022 average on this day of 2.9 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 407 GT is 27 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 380 GT.

The GFS forecast is largely unchanged - which perhaps gives one a bit more confidence. GFS has the Greenland High waning with lows over NE Canada & the CAA and later a mid-Atlantic High encouraging relatively warm Atlantic lows to head North up the East Greenland coast. Temperatures look to strongly rise from Sunday onwards for a few days before returning to more average levels.

If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could increase from the South with at least one significant rain on snow event. Daily Melt may also strongly increase from Sunday through to Wednesday before moderating - perhaps even a melt event.

Accumulated melt is already well above the 2017-2022 average.

Accumulated SMB could well end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or 4th highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
Maybe a strengthening El Nino will give us some Autumn/Winter surprises

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 18th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt unchanged at 24%, still above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 2.6 GT is below the 2017-2022 average on this day of 2.7 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 405 GT is 27 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 378 GT.

The GFS forecast is largely unchanged for a 2nd day (which almost deserves an exclamation point). GFS has the Greenland High waning with lows over NE Canada & the CAA and later a mid-Atlantic High encouraging relatively warm Atlantic lows to head North up the East Greenland coast. Temperatures look to strongly rise from Sunday onwards for a few days before returning to more average levels.

If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could increase from the South with at least one significant rain on snow event. Daily Melt may also strongly increase from Sunday through to Wednesday before moderating - perhaps even a melt event.

Accumulated melt is already well above the 2017-2022 average.

Accumulated SMB is likely to end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or 4th highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
Maybe a strengthening El Nino will give us some Autumn/Winter surprises

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 19th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt down at 21%, still above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 2.8 GT is above the 2017-2022 average on this day of 2.0 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 402 GT is 26 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 376 GT.

The GFS forecast is largely unchanged for a 3rd day (which does deserve an exclamation point !). GFS still has the Greenland High waning with lows over NE Canada & the CAA and a mid-Atlantic High encouraging relatively warm Atlantic lows to head North up the East Greenland coast. Temperatures look to strongly rise from today (Sunday) onwards to Wednesday before quickly falling to perhaps below average levels.

If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could increase from the South with at least one significant rain on snow event - one of which is happening today over much of the West coast and well inland in the South. Daily Melt may also strongly increase from Sunday through to Wednesday before moderating - perhaps even a melt event - before quickly falling..

Accumulated melt is already well above the 2017-2022 average.

Accumulated SMB is very likely to end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or 4th highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
Maybe a strengthening El Nino will give us some Autumn/Winter surprises

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 20th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt up 8% to 29%, well above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB gain of 0.9 GT comapred with the 2017-2022 average loss on this day of 1.7 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 403 GT is 29 GT (8%) above the 2017-2022 average of 374 GT.

The GFS forecast is largely unchanged again for a 4th day. GFS still has the Greenland High waning with lows over NE Canada & the CAA and a mid-Atlantic High encouraging relatively warm Atlantic lows to head North up the East Greenland coast. Temperatures look to strongly rise some more from today (Monday) onwards to Wednesday/Thursday before quickly falling to perhaps below average levels.

If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could increase from the South with at least one significant rain on snow event. Daily Melt may also strongly increase from Monday through to Wednesday or even Thursday before moderating before quickly falling..

Accumulated melt is already well above the 2017-2022 average.

Accumulated SMB is almost certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or 4th highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
Maybe a strengthening El Nino will give us some Autumn/Winter surprises

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 21st August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt up 10% to 39%, more than double the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 0.6 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average loss on this day of 1.5 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 402 GT is 30 GT (8%) above the 2017-2022 average of 372 GT.

The GFS forecast is largely unchanged again for a 5th day for the next 6 days. GFS still has the Greenland High waning with lows over NE Canada & the CAA and a mid-Atlantic High encouraging relatively warm Atlantic lows to head North up the East Greenland coast. Temperatures look to stay high from today (Tuesday) onwards to Wednesday/Thursday before quickly falling to average levels.

If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could increase from the South with at least some rain on snow. Daily Melt may also stay very high today (Tuesday) to Wednesday or even Thursday before before quickly falling to average..

Accumulated melt is already well above the 2017-2022 average.

Accumulated SMB is certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or 4th highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter.

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 22nd August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt up 10% to 49%, more than triple the longterm average for the time of year and definitely at or close to a daily melt record for this day.

Daily SMB loss of 4.4 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average loss on this day of 0.5 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 398GT is 26 GT (7%) above the 2017-2022 average of 372 GT.

GFS has the Greenland High extremely weak to nonexistent with lows over NE Canada & the CAA and the Greenland/Norwegian seas  plus a mid-Atlantic High encouraging relatively warm Atlantic lows to head North up the East Greenland coast. Temperatures look to stay high today and Thursday before falling to something like average levels on Sunday with some residual warmth in the East.

If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could increase from the SW and SE  with some rain on snow. Daily Melt may also stay very high today and Thursday before before falling to average over the following days..

Accumulated melt is already well above the 2017-2022 average.

Accumulated SMB is certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or 4th highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter.

[oren]

A crazy year. Thanks for the updates Gero.

[Phil.]

Any chance of showing the 2012 melt curve Gero?

[John_the_Younger]

Except for all of Greenland's coastal glaciers draining into (then melting in) the ocean (net bad news), even very melt-y years like 2023 are associated with wet (net snowy) ice volume gain-y years.  It's nice to have a little good news!

[To deal with the "net bad news" problem] How about installing some heavy duty submarine nets and anchoring them to Greenland's robust Precambrian rock outcrops, and add thermal insulation? 

[gerontocrat]

Any chance of showing the 2012 melt curve Gero?

I did it using Greenland Today data about a week ago. But time for a update.

Looks like daily melt area on Aug 22was a record for the day. Could be another record for the day on the 23rd.

Total melt for the year will be 3rd or 2nd highest in the 45 year satellite record. 2012 still the record breaker by a stunning margin. But despite that 2012 still saw a net annual gain in SMB, though much lower than any other year before or since.

DMI have only issued daily data since 2017 - they wish they could do more but budgets are too tight.

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 23rd August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt up 1% to 50%, more than triple the longterm average for the time of year for the 2nd day, and a daily melt record for this day.

Daily SMB loss of 6.4 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average loss on this day of 0.0 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 391GT is 19 GT (5%) above the 2017-2022 average of 372 GT.

The next few days?
Not much change in the forecast weather. GFS has the Greenland High extremely weak to nonexistent with lows over NE Canada & the CAA and the Greenland/Norwegian seas  plus a mid-Atlantic High encouraging relatively warm Atlantic lows to head North up the East Greenland coast. Temperatures look to stay Thursday before falling to something like average levels by Sunday with some residual warmth in the East and then in the South.

If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could increase from the SW and SE  with some rain on snow. Daily Melt may also be  high or very high on Thursday before before falling to average over the following days..

Accumulated melt is already well above the 2017-2022 average.

Accumulated SMB is certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or perhaps 2nd highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter.

[Phil.]

Thanks for the 2012 data Gero.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Greenland Today graphs updated to 23 Aug, including changes for errors on last graph

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 24th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt down 7% to 43%, still more than triple the longterm average for the time of year for the 3rd day, and a daily melt record for this day.

Daily SMB loss of 0.2 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average gain on this day of 0.3 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 391GT is 19 GT (5%) above the 2017-2022 average of 372 GT.

The next few days?
GFS has the Greenland High extremely weak to nonexistent with the low over NE Canada & the CAA moving south down Baffin Bay, a low in the Greenland/Norwegian seas, and the mid-Atlantic High drifting south. Temperatures look to be mostly above average apart from the NW.

If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could be high at times, with some rain on snow on coastal areas. Daily Melt may also be falling to close to average.

Accumulated melt is already well above the 2017-2022 average.

Accumulated SMB is certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or perhaps 2nd highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter?

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 25th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt down 11% to 32%, which is still more than double the longterm average for the time of year, and likely another daily melt record for this day.

Daily SMB loss of 0.6 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average gain on this day of 0.1 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 390GT is 18 GT (5%) above the 2017-2022 average of 372 GT.

The next few days?
GFS has the Greenland High extremely weak to nonexistent with the low over NE Canada & the CAA moving south down Baffin Bay, and the mid-Atlantic High drifting south. Temperatures look to be below average in the North & West and above average in the South and East.

If the GFS forecast works out then daily precipitation could be high at times, with some rain on snow on coastal areas. Daily Melt may also be variable, but overall falling to closer to average.

Accumulated melt is already well above the 2017-2022 total average by 14%.

Accumulated SMB is certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the likelihood that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd or perhaps 2nd highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter?

[gerontocrat]

Nico Sun's snowcover graph on daily sea ice area lowest on this day and in the satellite record for 77 days this year includes a line for Greenland - in blue.

If you look closely you can see the impact of the late June/July high melt and the late August recent event. However, two notes of caution:
- one days high precipitation can quickly replace snowcover lost through melt,
- snowcover may be exaggerated, as high melt will change snowcover to bare ice over large areas but may still register as snowcover.

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 26th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt down 13% to 19%, which is still well above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 1.2 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average gain on this day of 1.1 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 389GT is 15 GT (4%) above the 2017-2022 average of 374 GT.

The next few days? Too late for me

Accumulated melt is already well above the 2017-2022 total average by 14%.

Accumulated SMB is certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the certainty that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd and maybe even 2nd highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter?

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 27th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt down 4% to 15%, which is still somewhat above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB loss of 0.2 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average gain on this day of 0.8 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 390GT is 15 GT (4%) above the 2017-2022 average of 374 GT.

The next few days?
Maybe warm enough for above average melt over the next few days.
SMB. Precipitation variable but maybe with extreme rain and snow next Friday / Saturday over the SE quarter from a deep low from the South - that includes warmth and wet from the remains of Hurricane Hilary?

Accumulated meltto date is above the 2017-2022 average total by 15%.

Accumulated SMB is certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the certainty that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd and maybe even 2nd highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter?

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 28th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt unchanged at 15%, which is still somewhat above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB gain of 1.9 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average gain on this day of 2.5 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 392GT is 15 GT (4%) above the 2017-2022 average of 377 GT.

The next few days?
Maybe warm enough for above average melt over the next 2-3 days.

SMB. Precipitation variable but maybe with the extreme rain and snow next Friday / Saturday skirting East Greenland from a deep low from the South - that includes warmth and wet from the remains of Hurricane Hilary, followed a few days later by remnants of Franklin?

Accumulated melt to date is above the 2017-2022 average total by 15%.

Accumulated SMB is certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the certainty that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd and maybe even 2nd highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter?

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 29th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt unchanged at 15%, which is well above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB gain of 0.7 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average gain on this day of 2.5 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 392GT is 15 GT (4%) above the 2017-2022 average of 377 GT.

The next few days?
Maybe warm enough for above average melt over the next 2-3 days.

SMB. Precipitation variable but maybe with extreme rain and snow next Sunday / Monday skirting East Greenland from a deep low from the South - that includes warmth and wet from the remains of Hurricane Franklin?

Accumulated melt to date is above the 2017-2022 average total by 16%.

Accumulated SMB is certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the certainty that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd and maybe even 2nd highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter?
[/quote]

[Carex]

Gero, for the last three days your text describes a surface mass balance daily loss but in the graph the last three days are shown as SMB daily gains.  Which is correct? Or, am I blindly mis-reading something?

[gerontocrat]

Gero, for the last three days your text describes a surface mass balance daily loss but in the graph the last three days are shown as SMB daily gains.  Which is correct? Or, am I blindly mis-reading something?

You are right, Carex, Well spotted.
Methinks I am doing too much at the moment.

Last two days corrected - too late to correct post of 3 days ago.

gero

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 30th August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily melt down 1 % at 14%, which is well above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB gain of 2.1 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average gain on this day of 2.7 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 394GT is 15 GT (4%) above the 2017-2022 average of 379 GT.

The next few days?
Maybe warm enough for above average melt over days 3-5 days mostly in the South?

SMB. Precipitation variable but maybe with extreme rain and snow next Saturday to Monday skirting East Greenland from a deep low from the South - that includes warmth and wet from the remains of Hurricane Franklin?

Accumulated melt to date is above the 2017-2022 average total by 16%.

Accumulated SMB is certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the certainty that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd and maybe even 2nd highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter?

[gerontocrat]

DMI data as at 31st August from http://polarportal.dk/en/greenland/surface-conditions/ & https://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk/data/prudence/temp/PLA/PP_GSMB/

Daily SMB gain of 3.5 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average gain on this day of 1.2 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 398GT is 17 GT (5%) above the 2017-2022 average of 381 GT.

And as far as DMI is concerned, that is the end of the year for SMB. What with DMI bedding in a new supercomputer, there may be some hiccups before we see SMB data for the Sept '23 to Aug '24 year. I will also need a few days to set up the new file.

DMI uses the calendar year for melt data.
Daily melt down 3 % at 11%, which is above the longterm average for the time of year.

I will also need a few days to set up the new file.

The next few days?
Maybe warm enough for above average melt over days 4-6 days mostly in the South?

SMB. Precipitation variable but maybe with extreme rain and snow today and Saturday  skirting East Greenland from a deep low from the South - that includes warmth.

Accumulated melt to date is above the 2017-2022 average total by 16%.

It is certain that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd and maybe even 2nd highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

I attach full year graphs - the melt graph shows how short the Greenland melt season is.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter?

[gerontocrat]

& here is the NSIDC Greenland Today data as at 31 Aug

NSIDC GREENLAND TODAY ACCUMULATED MELT:  32,350,626 KM2 as at 31-Aug-2023

- Melt  on this day 0.04 million km2, 0.01 million k m2 less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 0.05 million km2,
- Cumulative Melt on this date is 32.35 million km2, which is 9.64 million km2, 42.4% more than the 10 year average of 22.71 million km2.

- Cumulative Melt is at position #2 in the satellite record

- Melt is  9.59 million km2 MORE than 2020,
- Melt is  4.53 million km2 MORE than  2019,
- Melt is  0.79 million km2 MORE than 2010
- Melt is  13.99 million km2 LESS than 2012
- Melt is  1.20 million km2 MORE than 2016
- Melt is  5.41 million km2 MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 96.1% of Melt gains done, and 61 days to maximum

Projections. (TableMaxProjection)

Average remaining Melt gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum melt of 29.84 million km2, 17.57 million km2 below the Sept 2012 record high maximum of 47.41 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[Alexander555]

And how do you calculate the change in total mass of the ice sheet ?

[interstitial]

And how do you calculate the change in total mass of the ice sheet ?

Change in gravity on satellite.

[gerontocrat]

And how do you calculate the change in total mass of the ice sheet ?

Change in gravity on satellite.

I am still astonished that they can do it. Search for GRACE-FO & read all about it. It's a NASA / German Government project.